REPowerEU: Delivering Energy Security and a Realistic Transition

Read the full position paper here.

As the European Commission prepares to update REPowerEU, it must reflect not only how far we’ve come – but how much of the original vision was based on assumptions that proved unrealistic or undesirable. Gas consumption in the EU has indeed declined sharply in the past years – but not in the way policymakers imagined. Most of this reduction has come from painful demand destruction and lucky weather conditions, not positive structural transformation.

The next chapter of REPowerEU must be grounded in reality. This paper outlines five priority areas to secure the EU’s energy future while ensuring a credible path to decarbonisation:

1. Reality check on EU gas demand projections: We need modelling that supports infrastructure planning, guides market expectations, and enables long-term contracting – not one that creates false certainty and deters investment. The current 2030 gas consumption projections risk endangering our Security of Supply.
2. Regulation must support security of supply: With countless gas supply contract duration and pricing models, EU rules should not limit choices. Buyers need flexibility to manage risk and attract diverse and reliable supply.
3. Market intervention undermines trust and drives speculation: We cannot regulate our way out of volatility – we need credible long-term planning and functioning markets.
4. Gas infrastructure must be backed by EU policy: We need to enable strategic investment – at home and abroad – not send mixed signals. There can be no trade-offs between security of supply, affordability and sustainability.
5. Designing a deliverable transition: We need pragmatic, range-based projections, reflecting real world uncertainties – not a single politically convenient pathway.

Read the full position paper below.